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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Collaborators, GBD 2015 HIV and Wang, H. and Wolock, T.M. and Carter, A. and Nguyen, G. and Kyu, H.H. and Gakidou, E. and Hay, S.I. and Msemburi, W. and Coates, M.M. and Mooney, M.D. and Fraser, M.S. and Sligar, A. and Larson, H.J. and Friedman, J. and Brown, A. and Dandona, L. and Fullman, N. and Haagsma, J. and Khalil, I. and Lim, S.S. and Mikesell, J. and Mokdad, A.H. and Moradi-Lakeh, M. and Pearson, K. and Silpakit, N. and Sorensen, R.J.D. and Temesgen, A.M. and Vollset, S.E. and Zoeckler, L. and Murray, C.J.L. and Alfonso-Cristancho, R. and Harun, K.M. and Prokop, D.M. and Mills, E.J. and Trickey, A. and Ajala, O.N. and Bärnighausen, T. and Ding, E.L. and Farvid, M.S. and Thorne-Lyman, A.L. and Won, S. and Fitchett, J.R.A. and Salomon, J. and Abajobir, A.A. and Hoy, D.G. and Alam, N.K.M. and Abate, K.H. and Ghiwot, T.T. and Gebremedhin, A.T. and Abbas, K.M. and Abd El Razek, M.M. and Abd-Allah, F. and Abdulle, A.M. and Abera, S.F. and Melaku, Y.A. and Tesfay, F.H. and Abyu, G.Y. and Bayou, T.A. and Betsu, B.D. and Gebru, A.A. and Hailu, G.B. and Tekle, T. and Yalew, A.Z. and Yebyo, H.G. and Abubakar, I. and Aldridge, R.W. and Abu-Raddad, L.J. and Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. and Adebiyi, A.O. and Adedeji, I.A. and Adelekan, A.L. and Ojelabi, F.A. and Adofo, K. and Adou, A.K. and Akinyemiju, T.F. and Schwebel, D.C. and Singh, J.A. and Akseer, N. and Al Lami, F.H. and Al-Aly, Z. and Alam, K. and Weintraub, R.G. and Chiang, P.P. and Meretoja, A. and Lopez, A.D. and Wijeratne, T. and Driscoll, T.R. and Kemp, A.H. and Leigh, J. and Mekonnen, A.B. and Karema, C.K. and Alasfoor, D. and Aldhahri, S.F.S. and Terkawi, A.S. and Alegretti, M.A. and Aleman, A.V. and Alemu, Z.A. and Cooper, C. and Deribew, A. and Gething, P.W. and Ali, R. and Bennett, D.A. and Bisanzio, D. and Rahimi, K. and Alkerwi, A. and Alla, F. and Al-Raddadi, R.M.S. and Saeedi, M.Y. and Alsharif, U. and Alvarez, E. and Alvis-Guzman, N. and Amare, A.T. and Hoek, H.W. and Tura, A.K. and Ciobanu, L.G. and Tessema, G.A. and Amberbir, A. and Amegah, A.K. and Ammar, W. and Harb, H.L. and Amrock, S.M. and Antonio, C.A.T. and Anwari, P. and Ärnlöv, J. and Larsson, A. and Artaman, A. and Asayesh, H. and Asghar, R.J. and Assadi, R. and Atique, S. and Atkins, L.S. and Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. and Awasthi, A. and Bhatia, E. and Ayala, B.P. and Bacha, U. and Badawi, A. and Barac, A. and Basu, A. and Bayou, Y.T. and Bazargan-Hejazi, S. and Beardsley, J. and Bedi, N. and Santos, I.S. and Bensenor, I.M. and Lotufo, P.A. and Beyene, A.S. and Bhutta, Z.A. and Nisar, M.I. and Biadgilign, S. and Bikbov, B. and Birlik, S.M. and Brainin, M. and Brazinova, A. and Majdan, M. and Breitborde, N.J.K. and Oren, E. and Burch, M. and Butt, Z.A. and Campuzano, J.C. and Heredia-Pi, I.B. and Servan-Mori, E.E. and Cárdenas, R. and Fereshtehnejad, S. and Kivipelto, M. and Weiderpass, E. and Carrero, J.J. and Havmoeller, R. and Sindi, S. and Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. and Castillo Rivas, J. and Catalá-López, F. and Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. and Chang, H. and Chang, J. and Chavan, L. and Chen, W. and Chibalabala, M. and Chisumpa, V.H. and Mapoma, C.C. and Masiye, F. and de Jager, P. and Petzold, M. and Choi, J.J. and Khang, Y. and Christopher, D.J. and Mohammed, S. and Dahiru, T. and Damtew, S.A. and Deribe, K. and Temam, G. and Jeemon, P. and Dandona, R. and Goenka, S. and Kumar, G.A. and Lal, D.K. and Murthy, G.V.S. and Zodpey, S. and das Neves, J. and Pereira, D.M. and De Leo, D. and Degenhardt, L. and Dellavalle, R.P. and Des Jarlais, D.C. and Dharmaratne, S.D. and Doshi, P.P. and Doyle, K.E. and Dubey, M. and Rahman, M.H.U. and Ram, U. and Yadav, A.K. and Elshrek, Y.M. and Elyazar, I. and Endries, A.Y. and Ermakov, S.P. and Eshrati, B. and Esteghamati, A. and Hafezi-Nejad, N. and Sheikhbahaei, S. and Farzadfar, F. and Kasaeian, A. and Malekzadeh, R. and Roshandel, G. and Sepanlou, S.G. and Rahimi-Movaghar, V. and Yaseri, M. and Faghmous, I.D.A. and Langan, S.M. and McKee, M. and Farinha, C.S. and Faro, A. and Fernandes, J.C. and Fischer, F. and Foigt, N. and Fürst, T. and Majeed, A. and Gankpé, F.G. and Gebre, T. and Geleijnse, J.M. and Jibat, T. and Gessner, B.D. and Giroud, M. and Gishu, M.D. and Glaser, E. and Goodridge, A. and Gopalani, S.V. and Goto, A. and Gugnani, H.C. and Guimaraes, M.D.C. and Gupta, R. and Gupta, V. and Hagan, H. and Hamadeh, R.R. and Hamidi, S. and Hammami, M. and Hankey, G.J. and Hao, Y. and Harikrishnan, S. and Koyanagi, A. and Haro, J.M. and Hedayati, M.T. and Skirbekk, V. and Horino, M. and Horita, N. and Hosgood, H.D. and Hsairi, M. and Hu, G. and Huang, H. and Huang, J.J. and Iburg, K.M. and Idrisov, B.T. and Innos, K. and Iyer, V.J. and Jacobsen, K.H. and Jahanmehr, N. and Jakovljevic, M.B. and Javanbakht, M. and Jayatilleke, A.U. and Jha, V. and Jiang, G. and Jiang, Y. and Jonas, J.B. and Kabir, Z. and Kamal, R. and Kesavachandran, C.N. and She, J. and Zhang, H. and Kan, H. and Karch, A. and Karletsos, D. and Kaul, A. and Kawakami, N. and Shibuya, K. and Kayibanda, J.F. and Keiyoro, P.N. and Kengne, A.P. and Sliwa, K. and Mayosi, B.M. and Khader, Y.S. and Khan, A.R. and Khan, E.A. and Khubchandani, J. and Kim, Y.J. and Kinfu, Y. and Kokubo, Y. and Kosen, S. and Koul, P.A. and Kuate Defo, B. and Kucuk Bicer, B. and Kulkarni, V.S. and Lam, H. and Lam, J.O. and Tran, B.X. and Lansingh, V.C. and Leung, R. and Li, Y. and Lipshultz, S.E. and Wilkinson, J.D. and Liu, S. and Wang, L. and Yu, S. and Lloyd, B.K. and Logroscino, G. and Lunevicius, R. and Magdy, H. and Zaki, M.E. and Polinder, S. and Mahdavi, M. and Mahesh, P.A. and Marcenes, W. and Martinez-Raga, J. and Marzan, M.B. and Mason-Jones, A.J. and Meaney, P.A. and Mehndiratta, M.M. and Tedla, B.A. and Memiah, P. and Memish, Z.A. and Mendoza, W. and Meretoja, T.J. and Meretoja, T.J. and Mhimbira, F.A. and Miller, T.R. and Mirarefi, M. and Mohammad, K.A. and Monasta, L. and Mori, R. and Werdecker, A. and Mueller, U.O. and Westerman, R. and Unit, AIDS. & TB and Murimira, B. and Naheed, A. and Naldi, L. and Nangia, V. and Nash, D. and Nawaz, H. and Nejjari, C. and Ngalesoni, F.N. and Ngirabega, J.D. and Nguyen, Q.L. and Norheim, O.F. and Norman, R.E. and Nyakarahuka, L. and Obermeyer, C.M. and Ogbo, F.A. and Oh, I. and Olusanya, B.O. and Olusanya, J.O. and Opio, J.N. and Ota, E. and Park, H. and Park, J. and Patil, S.T. and Patten, S.B. and Paul, V.K. and Roy, A. and Sagar, R. and Peprah, E.K. and Perico, N. and Remuzzi, G. and Pesudovs, K. and Phillips, M.R. and Simard, E.P. and Pillay, J.D. and Plass, D. and Pourmalek, F. and Qorbani, M. and Rafay, A. and Rana, S.M. and Rahman, M. and Rahman, S.U. and Rai, R.K. and Rajsic, S. and Rao, P.V. and Rojas-Rueda, D. and Ruhago, G.M. and Sunguya, B.F. and Saleh, M.M. and Sanabria, J.R. and Sarmiento-Suarez, R. and Sartorius, B. and Yakob, B. and Sawhney, M. and Schutte, A.E. and Seedat, S. and Wiysonge, C.S. and Shaikh, M.A. and Sharma, R. and Shen, J. and Shin, H.H. and Sigfusdottir, I.D. and Silva, D.A.S. and Silveira, D.G.A. and Singh, O.P. and Singh, P.K. and Soneji, S. and Soriano, J.B. and Soti, D.O. and Sreeramareddy, C.T. and Stathopoulou, V. and Steel, N. and Swaminathan, S. and Sykes, B.L. and Talongwa, R.T. and Tavakkoli, M. and Taye, B. and Thapa, K. and Thomson, A.J. and Tobe-Gai, R. and Topor-Madry, R. and Towbin, J.A. and Tsala, Z. and Tsilimparis, N. and Ukwaja, K.N. and Uneke, C.J. and Uthman, O.A. and Venketasubramanian, N. and Vladimirov, S.K. and Vlassov, V.V. and Wolfe, C.D.A. and Wong, J.Q. and Xu, G. and Yano, Y. and Yip, P. and Yonemoto, N. and Yoon, S. and Younis, M.Z. and Yu, C. and Zaidi, Z. and Zeeb, H. and Zhao, Y. and Zuhlke, L.J. (2016) Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. The Lancet HIV, 3 (8). e361-e387.

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Abstract

Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. Findings Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5–2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6–40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7–1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1–1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: cited By 22
Uncontrolled Keywords: acquired immune deficiency syndrome; Article; CD4 lymphocyte count; cell heterogeneity; death; health care survey; highly active antiretroviral therapy; human; Human immunodeficiency virus infection; Human immunodeficiency virus prevalence; mortality rate; priority journal; sexually transmitted disease; virus transmission
Subjects: مقالات نمایه شده محققین دانشگاه در سایت ,Web of Science ,Scopus
Divisions: UNSPECIFIED
Depositing User: GOUMS
Date Deposited: 13 Jun 2017 05:30
Last Modified: 13 Jun 2017 05:30
URI: http://eprints.goums.ac.ir/id/eprint/4919

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