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Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent incidence trends and short-term predictions of the future burden

Roshandel, G. and Ferlay, J. and Ghanbari-Motlagh, A. and Partovipour, E. and Salavati, F. and Aryan, K. and Mohammadi, G. and Khoshaabi, M. and Sadjadi, A. and Davanlou, M. and Asgari, F. and Abadi, H. and Aghaei, A. and Ahmadi-Tabatabaei, S.-V. and Alizadeh-Barzian, K. and Asgari, A. and Asgari, N. and Azami, S. and Cheraghi, M. and Enferadi, F. and Eslami-Nasab, M. and Fakhery, J. and Farahani, M. and Farrokhzad, S. and Fateh, M. and Ghasemi, A. and Ghasemi-Kebria, F. and Gholami, H. and Golpazir, A. and Hasanpour-Heidari, S. and Hazar, N. and Hoseini-Hoshyar, H. and Izadi, M. and Jahantigh, M. and Jalilvand, A. and Jazayeri, S.-M. and Kazemzadeh, Y. and Khajavi, M. and Khalednejad, M. and Khanloghi, M. and Kooshki, M. and Madani, A. and Mirheidari, M. and Mohammadifar, H. and Moinfar, Z. and Mojtahedzadeh, Y. and Morsali, A. and Motidost-Komleh, R. and Mousavi, T. and Narooei, M. and Nasiri, M. and Niksiar, S. and Pabaghi, M. and Pirnejad, H. and Pournajaf, A. and Pourshahi, G. and Rahnama, A. and Rashidpoor, B. and Ravankhah, Z. and Rezaei, K. and Rezaianzadeh, A. and Sadeghi, G. and Salehifar, M. and Shahdadi, A. and Shahi, M. and Sharifi-Moghaddam, F. and Sherafati, R. and Soleimani, A. and Soltany-hojatabad, M. and Somi, M.-H. and Yadolahi, S. and Yaghoubi-Ashrafi, M. and Zareiyan, A. and Poustchi, H. and Zendehdel, K. and Ostovar, A. and Janbabaei, G. and Raeisi, A. and Weiderpass, E. and Malekzadeh, R. and Bray, F. (2021) Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent incidence trends and short-term predictions of the future burden. International Journal of Cancer.

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Abstract

Policymakers require estimates of the future number of cancer patients in order to allocate finite resources to cancer prevention, treatment and palliative care. We examine recent cancer incidence trends in Iran and present predicted incidence rates and new cases for the entire country for the year 2025. We developed a method for approximating population-based incidence from the pathology-based data series available nationally for the years 2008 to 2013, and augmented this with data from the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR) for the years 2014 to 2016. We fitted time-linear age-period models to the recent incidence trends to quantify the future cancer incidence burden to the year 2025, delineating the contribution of changes due to risk and those due to demographic change. The number of new cancer cases is predicted to increase in Iran from 112 000 recorded cases in 2016 to an estimated 160 000 in 2025, a 42.6 increase, of which 13.9 and 28.7 were attributed to changes in risk and population structure, respectively. In terms of specific cancers, the greatest increases in cases are predicted for thyroid (113.8), prostate (66.7), female breast (63.0) and colorectal cancer (54.1). Breast, colorectal and stomach cancers were the most common cancers in Iran in 2016 and are predicted to remain the leading cancers nationally in 2025. The increasing trends in incidence of most common cancers in Iran reinforce the need for the tailored design and implementation of effective national cancer control programs across the country. © 2021 Union for International Cancer Control.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: cited By 0
Subjects: آسیب شناسی QZ
بهداشت عمومی WA
بهداشت عمومی WA > آمار حیاتیWA
مقالات نمایه شده محققین دانشگاه در سایت ,Web of Science ,Scopus
Divisions: معاونت تحقیقات و فناوری
Depositing User: GOUMS
Date Deposited: 18 May 2021 08:26
Last Modified: 18 May 2021 08:26
URI: http://eprints.goums.ac.ir/id/eprint/11053

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